Colombia's forecast on Zika-linked birth defect may be too high says health minister - Reuters

Colombia, seen as a key test case for the impacts of a Zika outbreak, is reconsidering its own forecast of babies likely to be born with a rare birth defect linked to the mosquito-borne virus, indicating that it may be too high.

In an interview, Health Minister Alejandro Gaviria suggested the Andean nation may revise downward its projection of 500 to 600 cases of Zika-linked microcephaly, as the condition, marked by an abnormally small head, has not yet shown up in fetal ultrasounds.

That forecast would represent a fivefold spike in the number of Colombian microcephaly cases seen on average each year.

"We're doubting that figure. We're analyzing what's happening in Brazil, but between when we released the estimate and now we haven't found a single case of microcephaly," Gaviria said. "The extrapolation of Brazil's figures to Colombia, which is how we got the projection, now doesn't seem reasonable."

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